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Route turbulence forecast
Turbulence forecast for flights from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW).
Get a segment-by-segment turbulence forecast for any scheduled flight from SFO to MDW, with live wind and pilot reports.
Live status with real-time delays and cancellations.
Eastbound (generally tailwind-assisted) · Great-circle bearing 70°
The route crosses mid-latitudes where the polar jet can influence flight conditions, though exposure is shorter than on genuine long-haul crossings. The route crosses or passes near the Rocky Mountains, which can generate mountain-wave turbulence downwind when upper-level winds are strong. Flying eastbound, aircraft usually benefit from tailwinds near the jet core, which trims flight time — but the edges of the jet are where clear-air turbulence most often sits.
Transpacific routes are most turbulent in winter months when the polar jet is strong and positioned further south. Wind flowing over Rocky Mountains can generate mountain-wave turbulence that extends hundreds of kilometres downwind — most pronounced in winter when upper-level winds are strongest.
Most of the 2,977 km route sits in the mid latitude band with moderate jet-stream exposure. Historically that means occasional clear-air turbulence at cruise altitude is normal, especially in winter. Mountain-wave effects near the Rocky Mountains add short bumpy stretches when upper-level winds are strong.
Statistically, Late spring and early autumn sees the calmest conditions for this corridor. Within any season, morning departures see less convective (thunderstorm-driven) turbulence than afternoon flights.
Block time is usually around 4h 19m direct, cruising at approximately FL370 (37,000 ft). Actual duration varies with winds — tailwinds can shave 15–30 minutes, headwinds can add 30+ minutes on this eastbound sector.
We use live NOAA Aviation Weather Center pilot reports (PIREPs), SIGMETs and AIRMETs, layered with physics-based Ellrod and Richardson-number calculations from Open-Meteo pressure-level wind and temperature data. If a source is unavailable for a waypoint we show an em dash rather than invent a value.
Articles
Articles that unpack the factors driving turbulence on this type of route.
Winter over the Atlantic, monsoon over Asia, summer over the US — turbulence has a calendar. Here's the month-by-month pattern for every major flight corridor, and the best months to book a smoother flight.
Read moreUnderstanding Clear Air Turbulence - what causes it, where it occurs, and why it's the hardest type of turbulence to predict. Essential reading for frequent flyers.
Read moreShort answer: almost certainly not. Here's the full engineering, historical, and statistical picture of how modern aircraft handle turbulence — including what the Singapore Airlines SQ321 incident really tells us.
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