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Route turbulence forecast
Turbulence forecast for flights from Jorge Chávez International Airport (LIM) to Cancún International Airport (CUN).
Get a segment-by-segment turbulence forecast for any scheduled flight from LIM to CUN, with live wind and pilot reports.
Live status with real-time delays and cancellations.
Northbound · Great-circle bearing -16°
This is a short or low-latitude sector, so clear-air turbulence from upper-level jets is rare. The route crosses or passes near the Andes, which can generate mountain-wave turbulence downwind when upper-level winds are strong. At tropical latitudes, convective turbulence from thunderstorms is the main driver — pilots generally route around storm cells, but afternoon/evening flights encounter more build-up than morning departures.
Transpacific routes are most turbulent in winter months when the polar jet is strong and positioned further south. Wind flowing over Andes can generate mountain-wave turbulence that extends hundreds of kilometres downwind — most pronounced in winter when upper-level winds are strongest. Tropical routes see more convective (thunderstorm-driven) turbulence during regional wet seasons and monsoon cycles, typically worst in the afternoon and evening.
Most of the 3,828 km route sits in the tropical band with minimal jet-stream exposure. Historically that means most flights cruise in smooth air, with turbulence limited to short sectors near weather systems. Mountain-wave effects near the Andes add short bumpy stretches when upper-level winds are strong.
Statistically, Dry season sees the calmest conditions for this corridor. Within any season, morning departures see less convective (thunderstorm-driven) turbulence than afternoon flights.
Block time is usually around 4h 57m direct, cruising at approximately FL370 (37,000 ft). Actual duration varies with winds — tailwinds can shave 15–30 minutes, headwinds can add 30+ minutes on this northbound sector.
We use live NOAA Aviation Weather Center pilot reports (PIREPs), SIGMETs and AIRMETs, layered with physics-based Ellrod and Richardson-number calculations from Open-Meteo pressure-level wind and temperature data. If a source is unavailable for a waypoint we show an em dash rather than invent a value.
Articles
Articles that unpack the factors driving turbulence on this type of route.
Winter over the Atlantic, monsoon over Asia, summer over the US — turbulence has a calendar. Here's the month-by-month pattern for every major flight corridor, and the best months to book a smoother flight.
Read moreUnderstanding Clear Air Turbulence - what causes it, where it occurs, and why it's the hardest type of turbulence to predict. Essential reading for frequent flyers.
Read moreShort answer: almost certainly not. Here's the full engineering, historical, and statistical picture of how modern aircraft handle turbulence — including what the Singapore Airlines SQ321 incident really tells us.
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