Route turbulence forecast
Seoul → Manila
Turbulence forecast for flights from Incheon International Airport (ICN) to Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL).
Check flights on this route
Get a segment-by-segment turbulence forecast for any scheduled flight from ICN to MNL, with live wind and pilot reports.
Live status with real-time delays and cancellations.
What to expect on this route
Southbound · Great-circle bearing -167°
Most of the route sits away from the strongest jet-stream zones, so clear-air turbulence is less common than on long east-west crossings. A large portion of the flight crosses open ocean (North Pacific), where upper-level conditions are generally smoother than over continental terrain.
- Ocean / water segments
- North Pacific
Seasonal turbulence pattern
This corridor is most turbulent in the northern winter (Nov–Mar), when the jet stream is strongest and sits closer to the route.
- Peak turbulence
- November–March (Northern Hemisphere winter)
- Typically calmest
- Late spring to early autumn (May–September)
ICN → MNL turbulence FAQ
Is the Seoul to Manila flight usually bumpy?
Most of the 2,609 km route sits in the mixed band with low jet-stream exposure. Historically that means most flights cruise in smooth air, with turbulence limited to short sectors near weather systems.
When is the best time to fly ICN to MNL for a smooth flight?
Statistically, Late spring to early autumn (May–September) sees the calmest conditions for this corridor. Within any season, morning departures see less convective (thunderstorm-driven) turbulence than afternoon flights.
How long is the flight from ICN to MNL?
Block time is usually around 3h 51m direct, cruising at approximately FL370 (37,000 ft). Actual duration varies with winds — tailwinds can shave 15–30 minutes, headwinds can add 30+ minutes on this southbound sector.
How accurate is Turbcast's forecast for this route?
We use live NOAA Aviation Weather Center pilot reports (PIREPs), SIGMETs and AIRMETs, layered with physics-based Ellrod and Richardson-number calculations from Open-Meteo pressure-level wind and temperature data. If a source is unavailable for a waypoint we show an em dash rather than invent a value.
Related routes
Articles
More on Seoul ↔ Manila
Articles that unpack the factors driving turbulence on this type of route.
When Is Flight Turbulence Worst? A Month-by-Month Global Guide
Winter over the Atlantic, monsoon over Asia, summer over the US — turbulence has a calendar. Here's the month-by-month pattern for every major flight corridor, and the best months to book a smoother flight.
Read moreBest Seats to Avoid Turbulence: A Pilot-Informed Seat-by-Seat Guide
Physics, not superstition: the center-of-gravity math behind which seats feel turbulence least. Complete breakdown by seat section, aircraft type, and cabin class — with actual seat-map recommendations.
Read moreWill Turbulence Crash a Plane? What the Aviation Safety Data Actually Shows
Short answer: almost certainly not. Here's the full engineering, historical, and statistical picture of how modern aircraft handle turbulence — including what the Singapore Airlines SQ321 incident really tells us.
Read more