Route turbulence forecast
Jakarta → Manila
Turbulence forecast for flights from Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (CGK) to Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL).
Check flights on this route
Get a segment-by-segment turbulence forecast for any scheduled flight from CGK to MNL, with live wind and pilot reports.
Live status with real-time delays and cancellations.
What to expect on this route
Northbound · Great-circle bearing 35°
This is a short or low-latitude sector, so clear-air turbulence from upper-level jets is rare. At tropical latitudes, convective turbulence from thunderstorms is the main driver — pilots generally route around storm cells, but afternoon/evening flights encounter more build-up than morning departures. A large portion of the flight crosses open ocean (Indian Ocean), where upper-level conditions are generally smoother than over continental terrain.
- Ocean / water segments
- Indian Ocean · North Pacific
Seasonal turbulence pattern
This corridor is most turbulent in the relevant hemisphere’s winter, when the jet stream is strongest and sits closer to the route. At tropical latitudes, convective (thunderstorm-driven) turbulence dominates during regional wet seasons and monsoon cycles, typically worst in the afternoon and evening.
- Peak turbulence
- Regional wet season (varies by location)
- Typically calmest
- Dry season
CGK → MNL turbulence FAQ
Is the Jakarta to Manila flight usually bumpy?
Most of the 2,788 km route sits in the tropical band with minimal jet-stream exposure. Historically that means most flights cruise in smooth air, with turbulence limited to short sectors near weather systems.
When is the best time to fly CGK to MNL for a smooth flight?
Statistically, Dry season sees the calmest conditions for this corridor. Within any season, morning departures see less convective (thunderstorm-driven) turbulence than afternoon flights.
How long is the flight from CGK to MNL?
Block time is usually around 4h 04m direct, cruising at approximately FL370 (37,000 ft). Actual duration varies with winds — tailwinds can shave 15–30 minutes, headwinds can add 30+ minutes on this northbound sector.
How accurate is Turbcast's forecast for this route?
We use live NOAA Aviation Weather Center pilot reports (PIREPs), SIGMETs and AIRMETs, layered with physics-based Ellrod and Richardson-number calculations from Open-Meteo pressure-level wind and temperature data. If a source is unavailable for a waypoint we show an em dash rather than invent a value.
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