Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport turbulence forecast
Phoenix, United States
PHX (Phoenix, United States) sits at 33.43°N, 112.01°W, 1,135 ft elevation — with the Rocky Mountains nearby.
About PHX
Major airport serving Phoenix, United States.
- Climate
- Subtropical inland — hot summers, seasonal rains
- Nearby terrain
- Rocky Mountains
What to expect on departures
Computed from PHX's geography and climate
The jet stream meanders across this latitude seasonally — PHX sees its strongest CAT exposure in December–February, when the polar jet pushes equatorward and routes intersect it more often. June-onwards departures climb into cleaner upper-level flow. The Rocky Mountains sit upwind of PHX on prevailing flow days, generating mountain-wave turbulence that can extend several hundred kilometres downwind at cruise level. The lee-wave risk is highest when December–February winds at FL300 cross the Rocky Mountains at near-perpendicular angles. Warm-season convection (June–August) drives the dominant turbulence pattern from PHX — afternoon thunderstorm cells are routed around but their wake turbulence and gust fronts can still affect arrivals and departures.
Climbout notes
Standard Instrument Departures (SIDs) often route around terrain; on strong-wind days, low-level turbulence in the lee of the hills is common in the first few thousand feet.
Seasonal pattern
Winter (December–February) brings the strongest jet-stream activity — that's when long-haul departures most often log clear-air turbulence at cruise. Summer (June–August) is peak thunderstorm season — convective turbulence is the dominant warm-season risk. Mountain-wave activity near the Rocky Mountains peaks in the cold season when upper-level winds blow hardest across the range.
- Peak turbulence
- November–February (strong jet)
- Typically calmest
- May–September
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PHX turbulence FAQ
Is turbulence common on flights from PHX?
Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport is best described as a mountain-wave sensitive airport. The jet stream meanders across this latitude seasonally — PHX sees its strongest CAT exposure in December–February, when the polar jet pushes equatorward and routes intersect it more often.
When is turbulence worst for Phoenix flights?
Winter (December–February) brings the strongest jet-stream activity — that's when long-haul departures most often log clear-air turbulence at cruise. Peak turbulence window: November–February (strong jet). Typically calmest: May–September.
Does the terrain around Phoenix affect turbulence?
Yes — the Rocky Mountains lie close enough to generate mountain-wave turbulence on days with strong upper-level winds. These waves can propagate hundreds of kilometres downwind, so they sometimes affect cruise even after you've left the immediate area.
How accurate are Turbcast forecasts?
We combine live NOAA Aviation Weather Center data (PIREPs, SIGMETs, AIRMETs) with physics-based Ellrod and Richardson-number calculations derived from Open-Meteo pressure-level wind and temperature data. If a source is unavailable for a waypoint we show an em dash rather than invent a number.
Articles
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