Melbourne Airport turbulence forecast
Melbourne, Australia
MEL (Melbourne, Australia) sits at 37.67°S, 144.84°E, 434 ft elevation — coastal with the Great Dividing Range nearby.
About MEL
Australia's second busiest airport.
- Climate
- Mid-latitude maritime — variable, wind-driven weather
- Nearby terrain
- Great Dividing Range
- Geography
- Coastal — marine-influenced airmass
What to expect on departures
Computed from MEL's geography and climate
Melbourne sits squarely under the mid-latitude jet, south of which most long-haul corridors run. Clear-air turbulence (CAT) at cruise is the most common source of bumps on departures from here, especially during June–August when the jet is at its strongest. The Great Dividing Range sit upwind of MEL on prevailing flow days, generating mountain-wave turbulence that can extend several hundred kilometres downwind at cruise level. The lee-wave risk is highest when June–August winds at FL300 cross the Great Dividing Range at near-perpendicular angles. Warm-season convection (December–February) drives the dominant turbulence pattern from MEL — afternoon thunderstorm cells are routed around but their wake turbulence and gust fronts can still affect arrivals and departures. MEL's coastal position means departures often transit from the cool marine boundary layer into warmer continental air within minutes of takeoff — a brief but reliable bumpy transition on warm-season afternoons when the sea breeze is set up.
Climbout notes
Standard Instrument Departures (SIDs) often route around terrain; on strong-wind days, low-level turbulence in the lee of the hills is common in the first few thousand feet.
Turbulence conditions
Southern location means exposure to Southern Ocean weather patterns. Bass Strait crossings can be bumpy. Generally moderate turbulence conditions.
Seasonal pattern
Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) is when the subtropical jet strengthens, and that's when long-haul CAT is most likely. Southern summer (December–February) is the main convective window. Mountain-wave activity near the Great Dividing Range peaks in the cold season when upper-level winds blow hardest across the range.
- Peak turbulence
- June–August (Southern Hemisphere winter jet)
- Typically calmest
- November–February
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Popular routes from MEL
MEL turbulence FAQ
Is turbulence common on flights from MEL?
Melbourne Airport is best described as a jet-stream + mountain-wave corridor. Melbourne sits squarely under the mid-latitude jet, south of which most long-haul corridors run.
When is turbulence worst for Melbourne flights?
Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) is when the subtropical jet strengthens, and that's when long-haul CAT is most likely. Peak turbulence window: June–August (Southern Hemisphere winter jet). Typically calmest: November–February.
Does the terrain around Melbourne affect turbulence?
Yes — the Great Dividing Range lie close enough to generate mountain-wave turbulence on days with strong upper-level winds. These waves can propagate hundreds of kilometres downwind, so they sometimes affect cruise even after you've left the immediate area.
How accurate are Turbcast forecasts?
We combine live NOAA Aviation Weather Center data (PIREPs, SIGMETs, AIRMETs) with physics-based Ellrod and Richardson-number calculations derived from Open-Meteo pressure-level wind and temperature data. If a source is unavailable for a waypoint we show an em dash rather than invent a number.
Articles
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